“How to Lie with Statistics”

The famous old book “How to Lie with Statistics” had a profound impact on me when I read it as a student, so we would not want to rely on statistics alone. However, the following figures regarding the online channel are worth reflecting on:

• Australians are currently spending 13.7 hours a week surfing the net compared with 13.3 hours watching TV. (Nielsen)
• In 2007, advertisers spent $1.34b on the net which was a 34% increase on 2006. But the spend on TV was $3.8b and in newspapers $3.1b. (Internet Advertising Bureau)
• In March 08, Aussie Homes Loans spent 100% of the company’s media budget on digital advertising. Maybe this is the first such example of a major advertiser going all the way with digital. (Amnesia Group)
• In 2008, 4% of consumers say they trust blogs. In 2007 this was 15%. (Grey)
• 42% of Gen Y use social networking sites. (Grey)
• 26% of Gen Y spend two hours or more a day online. The equivalent figure for people over 63 years is 38%. (Grey)
• While Google might appear to be the only search engine in Australia, in the US, the Google share is about 67%. Yahoo has about 20% of the market and MSN, 6%. (Hitwise)
• Just two weeks ago, Hitwise reported that the launch of Freesat, the free satellite TV service provided by the BBC and ITV in the UK, proved popular with online consumers during its launch week in May. UK Internet traffic to www.freesat.co.uk, the service's online homepage, increased by 627% during the week ending 10 May 2008.

Note: “How to Lie with Statistics” by Darrell Huff first appeared in 1954. It is one of the most widely read statistics books in history, with over one and a half million copies sold in the English-language edition. It is a brief, breezy, illustrated volume outlining the common errors associated with the interpretation of statistics, and how these errors can lead to biased or inaccurate conclusions.

Writing Tip - Activate your writing

To engage people with your words, you need to activate your writing.

Whenever you write the words "is," "was," "are," or "to be," train yourself to stop and change them to something more active.

"The meeting is tonight" sounds fairly dead. But the following is far more alive and effective:

"The meeting starts tonight at 7pm sharp."

"Suzy Bloggs is the finest promoter in the country" doesn't convey much excitement. But this is more impactful:

"Suzy Bloggs creates corporate events better than anyone else on the planet."

To make your words work harder for you takes time. When you do your first draft leave it for a while, preferably overnight. And remember: Rewriting is the essence of all good writing.

Your marketing role and the cost of petrol

It’s a sad comment on our political leaders that the debate on petrol pricing has been so woeful.

However, that’s just my opinion and that is not important. The critical thing is that consumers are concerned about petrol. And how will that affect us as marketers?

We all know there is lots of whining going on. And for good reason. For many people, petrol at $1.60 per litre, is lifestyle-changing. (Not to mention what $2.50 might do in a year’s time).

As marketers, we have to be alert to what petrol prices mean for consumer buying habits? And how will the agencies that market consumer products be impacted?

Whenever consumers are feeling the finch, that’s important for marketers.All the information to hand seems to be indicating that consumers on tight budgets are being forced to make cuts.

Many readers of The Scoop will have already noticed that in the US last Friday Sears, Roebuck reported a $56 million loss for the quarter ended 3 May. That was surprisingly bad, even taking into account the steep drop in earnings that had already been forecast.

In Australia, last Saturday The Age reported that new applications for consumer loans have all but dried up. Whether that’s because of higher interest rates or petrol prices, who knows?

From anecdotal evidence everywhere, it seems that in mid 2008, people are:

• Eating out at restaurants less often.
• Buying less clothing, or shopping at discount retailers to save money.
• Taking public transportation more often or riding or walking to work/school.
• Developing an overall mentality to cut spending.\

This sort of behaviour has to very soon trigger an impact on marketers.

For consumer brands, more advertising dollars will be refocused on value brands. In many sectors, the price points on products from airfares to chemicals will soar as a result of higher energy costs. And lower profits will mean every vendor relationship will come under greater scrutiny.

Marketers and ad agencies of all sizes need to be more proactive in understanding the changing consumer mindset.

Marketing communications messages that motivated buyers even six months ago may need to be different today. Increasingly, people are becoming more worried about feeding their families, getting to work and paying their rising bills.

Agencies must empathise with consumers and appeal to their immediate needs. Marketers need to be out there talking to people and pouring through current research and interpreting it carefully.
Higher petrol prices seem set to be a way of life now for as long as oil supplies last. That does not make anyone happy. But, as marketers, we can do something about it, in our own little way. Time to listen more carefully to consumers and clients. Time to innovate more often. Maybe it’s time to ride a bike to work.

You can get a FREE copy of a 12-page PDF on “Direct Marketing Foundations”, written by Frank Chamberlin.